There was a period between Paul Keating's surprise election victory in 1993 and the 1996 election when many pundits were talking of the possible death of the Liberal Party. After Alexander Downer's absurd stint as leader, the Liberals appeared to have no one left. There was John Howard, of course, but his electoral appeal was thought to be similar to that of a sun-dried turd at the furthest reach of the remotest paddock. But what could they do? They promoted him. Surely, the pundits thought, this is the end of the Liberal Party.

Eleven years later the subject has come up again. What will happen to the Liberal Party if it loses the next election?

That dark thought must give an extra spur to the Prime Minister as he considers his strategy against a man whose measure he's struggling to get. No one is writing off John Howard. What's changed with Kevin Rudd is that people have stopped writing off Labor.

Most obviously at risk is Howard's own reputation. A loss would change the way his whole prime ministership was assessed.

But, far worse for the Liberals, the impact on the party would potentially be dire. If, as most observers are predicting, the NSW Government hangs on in next month's poll, a Howard loss would mean all Australian governments would be in Labor hands — a first. "It would be a historic crisis of the party," one senior Liberal says. -- Michelle Grattan, After Howard, the deluge.

Morris Iemma's Labor Party in NSW is perhaps the weakest of the state governments, and there is no certainty he can pull off a win next month. If he does and Howard loses, that "first" could prove fatal for the Libs. If Iemma loses, and NSW gains a Liberal government, the result could prove even worse for the Federal party. Voters may then be persuaded that with all state governments no longer in the Labor stronghold, a change to Labor at the federal level would now be possible.

But is the Federal Liberal Party really the Liberal Party as we used to know it? Not at all. It is, in effect, the John Howard Party, the JHP. There are but a handful of true Liberals left in Parliament. The rest have sold out to mankind's lowest instincts as personified by their leader.

Even a moderate Labor victory will signal the death of the John Howard Party. But a Rudd/Gillard landslide would further rid the nation of much of the ministerial rubbish that under any other leader would have languished on the backbenches for the breadth of their unfitness. Whether a squeak-through or a walk-over, a Labor victory will consign the remnants of the almost terminally divided Liberal Party to oblivion for several elections. But once purged of extremist Howardites, it will return as the other party our democracy must have.

-- Olney Garkle